IDC forecasts sale of 14.5m mobile handsets

Jonah Iboma

The International Data Corporation has raised its forecast of the number of mobile phones to be sold in Nigeria in 2007, predicting that users will buy a total of 14.5 million phones this year.

IDC had said it expected the market in 2007 for mobile phones to reach 12.3 million. In the report it said it expected over 10.5million new GSM phones to be sold, while imported refurbished phones and CDMA phones would add another 1.7 million for a total market of 12.3 million.

This figure, IDC said in its Nigeria Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, Q4 2006, “will make the Nigerian market the largest in Africa, exceeding that in South Africa for the first time.”

However following recent developments, IDC said the market had witnessed unexpected boom of mobile phone sales in the second quarter of 2007 and as such would result in the increase in sales figures for the year.

The global business intelligence research firm, according to data made available to our correspondent, said it expected over 13 million new mobile phone to be sold in 2007.

It said, “The Nigerian handset market boomed again in the second quarter and reached close to three million new GSM phones, according to the latest research from IDC. As a result, IDC has raised its forecast for the full year to nearly 13 million units. Together with CDMA handsets and imported refurbished phones, retail sales will total 14.5 million in 2007, IDC believes.”

The report noted that during the second quarter, Nokia further extended its leadership in the market, accounting for three phones out of every five sold in the market. It noted that Motorola sales fell a lot for the second quarter running, with its share falling to 13.7 per cent from 19.4 per cent in the first three months of the year, while Samsung had a strong quarter and challenged for the number two position with a share of 12.0per cent.
The Nigerian situation appears to be a reflection of the global trend where Samsung upstaged Motorola to become the world’s second largest mobile phone firm in sales figures.
Program Manager for Mobile Devices, IDC CEMA, Simon Baker, said, "Nokia has been the major beneficiary of Motorola's misstep. The only bright spot for Motorola was that its Motofone model, its big hope at the cheaper price levels, is beginning to sell well after a slow start. But in general terms Nokia is sweeping the board at the lower end of the market, where so many phones are sold.”
He added that there were competitive entry-level models from the Chinese-controlled brands of Sagem, Alcatel, and Philips, but, noted that they were failing to make much impact in comparison."
IDC CEMA covers Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East and Africa.
The research showed that nearly three quarters of phones sold in Nigeria had a retail price of less than $80 in Q2. The report stated that Samsung gains were higher up the market, where Sony Ericsson models also figure in the rivalry with Nokia.
However, the second quarter performance may be surpassed as the year approaches the fourth quarter, which is traditionally the strongest in the Nigerian handset market.
The implication of the new predication is that Nigerian would further strengthen its position as Africa’s leading telecoms market.

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