Nigeria, others lead 2007 handset sales growth forecast
Jonah Iboma
Nigeria is among eight emerging countries that have been predicted to lead to an increase in the number of handsets predicted to be sold globally in 2007.
According to Financial advisory firm, Merrill Lynch, higher mobile subscriber penetration in the group of eight emerging countries (E-8) that include India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, Nigeria, and Egypt is the principal driver behind the higher handset shipment numbers.
Merrill Lynch had raised its forecast for 2007 global handset unit growth forecast from 10 per cent to 13 per cent with units up from 1.067bn to 1.106 bn.
Our correspondent gathered that looking further ahead, the firm predicted that 2008 unit growth would be up from 4 per cent to 8 per cent with units up to 1.196 bn. The firm is are also increasing unit estimates by 39 million in 2007, 86 million in 2008 and 111 million in 2009.
Merrill Lynch expects that net additions in the E-8 will peak in 2007 at 241 million subscribers and the E-8 will account for 40 per cent of global subscribers in 2010. This means that about 1.6 bn of 3.9bn global subscriber base would be form these countries.
Already huge growth of the mobile telephony industry has seen Nigeria, India and China lead in growth figures in the last few years. Nigeria, with barely five years of having mobile phones has already realised a subscriber base of over 30m. The country is being predicted to become the largest by the end of the year and also have nearly a quarter of Africa’s entire subscriber base within three years.
The firm said the majority of the increase in mobile phones sales in 2007 (37mn) should come from handsets purchased by new subscribers. It however, added that in later years, 2008-10, the increase in their forecasts is dominated by replacement units, since the mobile subscriber base would now be higher.
Nigeria is among eight emerging countries that have been predicted to lead to an increase in the number of handsets predicted to be sold globally in 2007.
According to Financial advisory firm, Merrill Lynch, higher mobile subscriber penetration in the group of eight emerging countries (E-8) that include India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, Nigeria, and Egypt is the principal driver behind the higher handset shipment numbers.
Merrill Lynch had raised its forecast for 2007 global handset unit growth forecast from 10 per cent to 13 per cent with units up from 1.067bn to 1.106 bn.
Our correspondent gathered that looking further ahead, the firm predicted that 2008 unit growth would be up from 4 per cent to 8 per cent with units up to 1.196 bn. The firm is are also increasing unit estimates by 39 million in 2007, 86 million in 2008 and 111 million in 2009.
Merrill Lynch expects that net additions in the E-8 will peak in 2007 at 241 million subscribers and the E-8 will account for 40 per cent of global subscribers in 2010. This means that about 1.6 bn of 3.9bn global subscriber base would be form these countries.
Already huge growth of the mobile telephony industry has seen Nigeria, India and China lead in growth figures in the last few years. Nigeria, with barely five years of having mobile phones has already realised a subscriber base of over 30m. The country is being predicted to become the largest by the end of the year and also have nearly a quarter of Africa’s entire subscriber base within three years.
The firm said the majority of the increase in mobile phones sales in 2007 (37mn) should come from handsets purchased by new subscribers. It however, added that in later years, 2008-10, the increase in their forecasts is dominated by replacement units, since the mobile subscriber base would now be higher.
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